In a recent publication Welch and Black showed that
overdiagnosis is particularly frequent in cancer:
“We estimated [that] the magnitude of overdiagnosis
from randomized trials [is] about 25% of
mammographically detected breast  cancers, 50% of
chest x-ray and/or sputum-detected lung cancers, and
60% of prostate-specific antigen– detected prostate
cancers “

Since overdiagnosed patients are often  needlessly treated, any physician  contributing to overdiagnosis  made a mistake. His decision to treat was wrong! Yet he actually  followed   medical guidelines. In other words, these guidelines drive physicians to wrong treatment decisions. Therefore some aspects of medical reasoning are false. This presentation shows what is wrong with medical reasoning